India Commodities: One Aggregate, Two Sectors

A head-analyst view on Indian Commodities — reading the same-store earnings panel against Q3 FY2026 results, ICRA/CRISIL/McKinsey research and management commentary across metals, cement, chemicals, paper and textiles.

Analyst memo

The sector is moving from a uniform commodity beta to a dispersion trade. The aggregate is flattered by a handful of large non-ferrous and cement names; underneath, the gap between input-cost winners (aluminium, zinc, cement on the capex cycle) and import-exposed losers (paper, textiles) is the whole story. Underwrite the sub-segment and the cost curve, not the headline.

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Executive Summary

Indian Commodities is not a single sector this cycle — it is at least two. The same-store aggregate (common panel, n=497) reads well: revenue grew +4% in FY2025 and EBITDA +9%, with aggregate PAT up +28% and the EBITDA margin at 15.32% (+0.7pp). The FY2026-partial picture accelerates — same-store revenue +14% with PAT +45% — and the quarterly revenue line builds cleanly from +1% in Q3 FY2025 to +14% in Q3 FY2026. That is the constructive side, and it is real.

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