Essays on markets, AI, and capital

Independent Portfolio Manager Review · September 30, 2026

India Industrials: The Scarce Asset Is Execution, Not An Order Book

The most interesting industrial opportunity is the equipment that removes constraints on electricity delivery. The August note was constructive on the capex cycle but demanded profit conversion. This review retains that discipline while narrowing the thesis: examine electrical equipment separately from large project contractors, and require cash evidence before paying for visibility.

Senior Portfolio Manager Review — Healthcare and Pharma · September 30, 2026

India Healthcare: Growth Has Two Different Waiting Rooms

Innovative medicines need commercial conversion; hospital expansion needs occupied beds. Both can create value, but neither should be valued as if the ramp were complete.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review — Telecommunication · September 30, 2026

India Telecom: Monetisation Improves, but the Next Capex Cycle Is Arriving

The services thesis survives inspection: customers are upgrading and home connectivity is expanding. The next underwriting question is how much cash shareholders retain as fibre, cloud and data centres compete for investment.

Senior Portfolio Manager Review — Financial Services · September 30, 2026

India Financials: The Profit Beat Needs a Funding and Recovery Bridge

The most useful distinction is between recurring underwriting earnings and profit helped by recoveries. Deposit pricing determines how much growth shareholders can keep.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review — Information Technology · September 30, 2026

India IT: AI Wins Must Survive the Revenue Replacement Test

AI adoption is creating identifiable work, but the investment question is how much survives after productivity savings, acquisitions and currency translation. I retain a selective stance and lower the confidence attached to a broad demand recovery.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review — Fast Moving Consumer Goods · September 30, 2026

India FMCG: Consumption Signals Improve, but the Consumer Is Still Fragmented

The evidence favours a selective consumption recovery, with meaningful differences between categories and price points. I would research franchises that grow physical consumption while funding their brands and protecting cash generation.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review — Consumer Discretionary · September 30, 2026

India Consumer: Separate Real Buyers from Inventory Windfalls

Demand evidence is encouraging in selected franchises, but the earnings bridge is essential. Jewellery inventory gains and automotive input costs can move reported profit far away from the underlying customer trend.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review · September 30, 2026

India Power: The Investment Question Is Who Gets Paid For Reliability

The most interesting power theme is the ability to deliver electricity when and where customers need it. The August note favoured funded generators and grids but cautioned that aggregate profit outpaced the typical company. This review keeps the financing discipline and shifts attention to evacuation constraints, contracted reliability and the timing of cash collection.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review · September 30, 2026

India Materials: Cost Position Matters More Than The Upcycle Label

The August note called the commodity upcycle broad while warning that it was not one trade. The September review makes the second point the governing rule. Selected issuer evidence supports stronger operating franchises, but an improving quarter can contain acquisition integration, inventory benefits and costs that have not yet reached the income statement.

Independent Portfolio Manager Review · September 30, 2026

India Energy: High Refining Spreads Are Not The Shareholder’s Margin

The August note described a fracture between energy revenue and profit. That remains a useful warning, but the next step is to identify the mechanisms at each company. Reliance’s oil-to-chemicals business improved while IndianOil reported a standalone loss. These observations can coexist because exposure to crude procurement, product mix and domestic cost recovery differs.

Senior Portfolio Manager Review — Services and Logistics · September 30, 2026

India Logistics: More Parcels Are Not Yet More Earning Power

Acquisition scope, fuel recovery and network utilisation explain more than volume headlines. The opportunity is in operators that turn scale into durable cash returns.

Senior Portfolio Manager Review — Conglomerates and Holdcos · September 30, 2026

India Conglomerates: Follow the Cash Beyond the Headline Profit

Mature businesses are financing new franchises. The key question is what reaches the parent shareholder after minority interests, investment commitments and reinvestment.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Information Technology · August 20, 2026

India IT: Margin Confirms; Demand Still Needs Constant-Currency Proof

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +16.5%, EBITDA grew +17.9% and PAT grew +12.9%; operating margin changed +0.25pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +14.4% and median PAT of +6.3%. The earnings recovery is investable; a broad volume recovery is not yet proven.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Financial Services · August 20, 2026

India Financials: Profit Leads, but the Driver Still Needs Decomposition

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +10.2% and PAT grew +21.8%; EBITDA and EBITDA margin are deliberately omitted for lenders. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +17.5% and median PAT of +23.4%. The result supports exposure, not a blanket spread or credit-cost conclusion.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Healthcare · August 20, 2026

India Healthcare: Growth Survived; Margin Did Not Fully Follow

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +17.3%, EBITDA grew +10.8% and PAT grew +7.9%; operating margin changed -1.30pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +17.4% and median PAT of +18.5%. Growth justifies exposure; conversion determines position size.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Fast Moving Consumer Goods · August 20, 2026

India FMCG: Top Line Stabilised; Margin Breadth Did Not

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +9.9%, EBITDA grew +3.7% and PAT grew +3.9%; operating margin changed -0.82pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +10.1% and median PAT of +10.8%. This is stabilisation, not yet a broad earnings upgrade.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Consumer Discretionary · August 20, 2026

India Consumer: Demand Strong, Conversion Uneven

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +32.1%, EBITDA grew +18.9% and PAT grew +16.7%; operating margin changed -0.99pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +14.3% and median PAT of +21.3%. Own demand leaders that convert; do not declare a sector-wide margin turn.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Industrials · August 20, 2026

India Industrials: Order Cycle Intact, Profit Conversion Two-Speed

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +17.6%, EBITDA grew +18.0% and PAT grew +5.0%; operating margin changed +0.04pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +16.3% and median PAT of +19.2%. The capex cycle holds; profit quality is not uniform enough for blanket multiple expansion.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Energy · August 20, 2026

India Energy: Revenue Shock, Profit Fracture

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +32.1%, EBITDA grew -32.9% and PAT grew -47.5%; operating margin changed -6.21pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +27.2% and median PAT of +27.4%. This is not a broad upstream-beneficiary trade; the energy chain has split.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Utilities · August 20, 2026

India Utilities: Asset Earnings Strong, Typical Company Less So

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +13.5%, EBITDA grew +21.7% and PAT grew +29.6%; operating margin changed +2.35pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +11.5% and median PAT of +1.4%. The asset cycle is investable, but the typical company has not matched the headline.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Telecommunication · August 20, 2026

India Telecom: Core Services Are Readable Again

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +17.2%, EBITDA grew +18.0% and PAT grew not available; operating margin changed +0.34pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +18.3% and median PAT of +23.0%. The old unreadable-quarter conclusion is obsolete; core services carry the signal.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Commodities · August 20, 2026

India Commodities: Broad Upcycle, Still Not One Trade

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +16.9%, EBITDA grew +32.7% and PAT grew +49.2%; operating margin changed +2.33pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +17.3% and median PAT of +30.6%. The upcycle is broad, but dispersion argues for a basket rather than one-factor exposure.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Services · August 20, 2026

India Services: Growth Is Real; Transport Owns the Margin Problem

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +25.2%, EBITDA grew +9.8% and PAT grew +4.5%; operating margin changed -2.13pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +11.3% and median PAT of +6.6%. The sector is not broken; the earnings problem is concentrated in transport.

Head Portfolio Manager View - Diversified Companies · August 20, 2026

India Conglomerates: Earnings Returned, but NAV Events Still Rule

On one aligned company cohort, Q1 revenue grew +15.4%, EBITDA grew +20.7% and PAT grew +39.4%; operating margin changed +0.49pp. The same-store aggregate compares with median-company revenue of +9.3% and median PAT of +6.0%. Earnings no longer block the view; discount, demergers and capital allocation still dominate NAV.

Sector Musing update — Information Technology · June 30, 2026

India IT Update: The P&L Has Started To Confirm The Deal Book

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +12.0% YoY versus +10.0% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +7.9%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +74% across 58 companies. View: I would now call this a confirmed bottoming phase, still short of a broad turn. The sector deserves patience where net-new TCV, AI implementation revenue and pricing discipline are visible together.

Sector Musing update — Healthcare · June 30, 2026

India Healthcare Update: Revenue Held, Profit Quality Became The Test

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +11.1% YoY versus +13.4% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +12.1%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +81% across 86 companies. View: I am confirming the selective constructive stance, but the upgrade case now needs margin durability from mix, occupancy and regulated-market discipline rather than only revenue momentum.

Sector Musing update — Fast Moving Consumer Goods · June 30, 2026

India FMCG Update: The Call Tape Improved, Volume Still Has To Prove It

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +13.4% YoY versus +12.2% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +13.3%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +79% across 63 companies. View: I am more constructive, but not indiscriminate. The sector earns a better view where volume, gross margin and distribution expansion move together instead of only price/mix doing the work.

Sector Musing update — Consumer Discretionary · June 30, 2026

India Consumer Discretionary Update: The K-Shaped Boom Survived Q4

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +19.7% YoY versus +27.7% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +20.9%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +81% across 275 companies. View: I am confirming the view. Premium, autos, realty and travel-like demand pools still carry the sector; mass apparel, weak-ticket retail and margin-thin formats need proof.

Sector Musing update — Industrials · June 30, 2026

India Industrials Update: Order Visibility Is Now Showing Up In Q4 Numbers

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +12.3% YoY versus +25.1% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +1.2%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +80% across 218 companies. View: I am confirming the constructive stance. The edge remains in order-backed, working-capital-disciplined franchises; the risk is that execution slippage converts backlog into receivables rather than cash.

Sector Musing update — Energy · June 30, 2026

India Energy Update: Revenue Recovered, The Re-Rating Case Still Did Not

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +10.5% YoY versus +4.9% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +9.3%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +73% across 11 companies. View: I am confirming the cautious view. The sector can work tactically when spreads, gas volumes and under-recoveries align, but a durable upgrade needs cleaner profit conversion.

Sector Musing update — Utilities · June 30, 2026

India Utilities Update: Profit Decoupling Is Still The Whole Story

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was -0.3% YoY versus +0.6% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +3.3%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +62% across 24 companies. View: I am confirming the stance. Utilities remain more about regulated asset base, commissioning and receivable discipline than headline electricity demand growth.

Sector Musing update — Telecommunication · June 30, 2026

India Telecom Update: Pricing Power Is Real, PAT Is Still A Bad Compass

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +11.7% YoY versus +9.3% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +13.0%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +90% across 10 companies. View: I am confirming the positive sector structure but still refusing to use PAT as the lead signal. The investment debate remains tariff repair, ARPU, capex intensity and balance-sheet deleveraging.

Sector Musing update — Commodities · June 30, 2026

India Commodities Update: The Dispersion Trade Got Stronger

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +17.9% YoY versus +13.8% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +14.6%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +75% across 114 companies. View: I am more positive on the tape, not on every commodity business. The upgrade belongs to pricing-power and volume-backed segments; high-cost or globally oversupplied books still need caution.

Sector Musing update — Services · June 30, 2026

India Services Update: Revenue Was Fine, PAT Quality Was Not

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +10.2% YoY versus +13.5% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +7.7%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +77% across 47 companies. View: I am keeping the sector selective and stricter. The edge remains in logistics, exchanges/platforms and operating-leverage services where cash conversion is visible; headline sector PAT is not clean enough for a broad upgrade.

Sector Musing update — Diversified · June 30, 2026

India Holdcos Update: NAV Optionality Remains, But The Sample Is Thin

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +7.7% YoY versus +7.5% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +11.2%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +100% across 1 company. View: I am confirming the optionality view without upgrading the sector on the Q4 print. The right evidence is still asset sales, demergers, dividend policy and cleaner capital allocation.

Sector Musing — Information Technology · June 2, 2026

India IT: The Deal Book Says FY27, The P&L Still Says Wait

Indian IT is bottoming, not turning. Same-store revenue grew only +7% in FY25 and a directional +8% in FY26p, yet Q3 FY26 same-store revenue accelerated to +10% YoY and order books are at records (TCS $9.3bn TCV, HCLTech ~$3bn bookings). The debate is whether AI is the demand engine or the deflation that keeps the software core stuck near +6-7% — and whether US BFSI budgets unlock on Fed cuts before the H-1B/tariff overhang bites.

Sector Musing — Healthcare · June 2, 2026

India Healthcare: Revenue Compounds, Profit Re-Bases — Read The Mix, Not The Headline

A margin-rich, steadily compounding macro sector where the loud-looking FY26p profit dip is a base effect off an exceptional FY25, not operational decay. The edge is in domestic formulations and the structural hospital build-out; the discipline is reading mix — specialty, biosimilars, CDMO — over a single year's PAT optics.

Sector Musing — Fast-Moving Consumer Goods · June 3, 2026

India FMCG: The GST Tailwind Is Real, The Re-rating Has To Be Earned

Same-store FY2026 revenue is tracking +13% and PAT compounding off a soft FY2025 base, but the lift is partly GST realisation and restocking. The durable test is ex-GST volume into FY2027 — and premium multiples leave little room to miss it.

Sector Musing — Consumer Discretionary · June 3, 2026

India Consumer Discretionary: A Value-Led Boom Built On A Thin-Margin Floor

GST 2.0 and a festive surge have pushed same-store revenue to +30% (FY26p) and +28% in Q3 FY2026, but the FY2025 close exposes the quality gap — EBITDA margin slipped to 10.78% and FY2025 PAT grew just +3% same-store (the directional FY2026p does rebound to +49% PAT / +17% EBITDA on ~66%-reported data). This is a value-and-pricing boom carried by premiumisation and a thin-margin EMS surge, not a broad volume recovery — selectivity, not breadth, is the call into FY2027.

Sector Musing — Industrials · June 4, 2026

India Industrials: The Order Book Is Loud, The P&L Is Selective

A record public-capex anchor and record diversified-engineering order books make Industrials the most visible growth story in the market — but the same-store panel shows the engine is almost entirely Capital Goods, while Construction has quietly broken on the FY26 annual line. Buying the macro means underwriting the dispersion.

Sector Musing — Energy · June 4, 2026

India Energy: A Refining-Cycle Bounce Off A Low Base, Not A Re-Rating

FY2025 was a reset year for the Energy panel — same-store EBITDA -17%, PAT -25%, margin down 2.5pp to 11.24%. The FY2026 rebound and the Q3 FY2026 PAT +30% recovery are refining-cracks-led and cyclical, not a structural margin re-rating. The edge sits with integrated refiners; the drag sits with policy-squeezed city-gas and a normalising coal panel.

Sector Musing — Utilities · June 5, 2026

India Utilities: The Demand Beta Is Gone, The Asset Beta Has Arrived

A demand air-pocket dragged same-store revenue growth to a crawl, yet margins held near a record. The Indian power sector is quietly re-pricing from a volume story into a capacity-and-grid build-out story — and that changes which business models compound.

Sector Musing — Telecommunication · June 5, 2026

India Telecom: The Price War Is Over — Now Comes The Hard Part Of Charging For It

A consolidated three-player market is holding a best-in-market 42.7% same-store EBITDA margin and compounding revenue in low-double-digits — but the quarterly print is decelerating into a tariff-hike that has not yet landed. We are constructive on the integrated operators where ARPU and margin compound together, and selective-to-cautious on the lumpy equipment and normalising tower sub-segments.

Sector Musing — Commodities · June 6, 2026

India Commodities: One Aggregate, Two Sectors

The same-store Commodities aggregate looks strong — FY2025 revenue +4%, PAT +28%, EBITDA margin 15.32% — but the line hides a widening split: non-ferrous metals and capex-geared cement are the genuine FY2027 engines, while paper and textiles deteriorate on duty-free FTA imports and a costly cotton regime. This is a constructive but unusually selective sector.

Sector Musing — Services · June 6, 2026

India Services: Revenue Is Real, The Profit Air-Pocket Is Mechanical

A same-store read of India's logistics, transport-infrastructure and commercial-services panel for FY2026, where resilient top-line meets a Labour-Code-driven profit reset that is largely an accounting one-off, not a structural earnings collapse. The edge sits with capex-geared infrastructure and compliant organised staffing; the weak leg is diesel-capped road logistics.

Sector Musing — Diversified & Holdcos · June 6, 2026

India Diversified: The Earnings Tide Goes Out, The Re-rating Door Opens

FY2025 was a margin-led blowout that won't repeat; FY2026 is normalization. For India's conglomerates and holdcos, the differentiated return driver is no longer the earnings cycle — it is value-unlock: the Jio IPO, Vedanta's five-way split, and a structurally deep NAV discount that 2026 finally gives the market a reason to bridge.

Sector strategy · May 7, 2026

India Financials: Where The Edge Is Moving

A head-analyst read of the Indian financial sector: who has structural edge, who is likely to struggle, and what would change the view.

Post-close · October 28, 2026

Earnings Divergence Drives Indian Equities as Headline Indices Drag

A sharp split between headline benchmark fatigue and explosive stock-specific earnings responses defines the current market landscape.

Selective on earnings outperformers, cautious on broad index momentum