Essays on markets, AI, and capital

Sector Musing update — Information Technology · June 30, 2026

India IT Update: The P&L Has Started To Confirm The Deal Book

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +12.0% YoY versus +10.0% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +7.9%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +74% across 58 companies. View: I would now call this a confirmed bottoming phase, still short of a broad turn. The sector deserves patience where net-new TCV, AI implementation revenue and pricing discipline are visible together.

Sector Musing update — Healthcare · June 30, 2026

India Healthcare Update: Revenue Held, Profit Quality Became The Test

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +11.1% YoY versus +13.4% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +12.1%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +81% across 86 companies. View: I am confirming the selective constructive stance, but the upgrade case now needs margin durability from mix, occupancy and regulated-market discipline rather than only revenue momentum.

Sector Musing update — Fast Moving Consumer Goods · June 30, 2026

India FMCG Update: The Call Tape Improved, Volume Still Has To Prove It

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +13.4% YoY versus +12.2% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +13.3%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +79% across 63 companies. View: I am more constructive, but not indiscriminate. The sector earns a better view where volume, gross margin and distribution expansion move together instead of only price/mix doing the work.

Sector Musing update — Consumer Discretionary · June 30, 2026

India Consumer Discretionary Update: The K-Shaped Boom Survived Q4

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +19.7% YoY versus +27.7% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +20.9%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +81% across 275 companies. View: I am confirming the view. Premium, autos, realty and travel-like demand pools still carry the sector; mass apparel, weak-ticket retail and margin-thin formats need proof.

Sector Musing update — Industrials · June 30, 2026

India Industrials Update: Order Visibility Is Now Showing Up In Q4 Numbers

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +12.3% YoY versus +25.1% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +1.2%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +80% across 218 companies. View: I am confirming the constructive stance. The edge remains in order-backed, working-capital-disciplined franchises; the risk is that execution slippage converts backlog into receivables rather than cash.

Sector Musing update — Energy · June 30, 2026

India Energy Update: Revenue Recovered, The Re-Rating Case Still Did Not

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +10.5% YoY versus +4.9% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +9.3%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +73% across 11 companies. View: I am confirming the cautious view. The sector can work tactically when spreads, gas volumes and under-recoveries align, but a durable upgrade needs cleaner profit conversion.

Sector Musing update — Utilities · June 30, 2026

India Utilities Update: Profit Decoupling Is Still The Whole Story

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was -0.3% YoY versus +0.6% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +3.3%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +62% across 24 companies. View: I am confirming the stance. Utilities remain more about regulated asset base, commissioning and receivable discipline than headline electricity demand growth.

Sector Musing update — Telecommunication · June 30, 2026

India Telecom Update: Pricing Power Is Real, PAT Is Still A Bad Compass

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +11.7% YoY versus +9.3% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +13.0%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +90% across 10 companies. View: I am confirming the positive sector structure but still refusing to use PAT as the lead signal. The investment debate remains tariff repair, ARPU, capex intensity and balance-sheet deleveraging.

Sector Musing update — Commodities · June 30, 2026

India Commodities Update: The Dispersion Trade Got Stronger

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +17.9% YoY versus +13.8% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +14.6%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +75% across 114 companies. View: I am more positive on the tape, not on every commodity business. The upgrade belongs to pricing-power and volume-backed segments; high-cost or globally oversupplied books still need caution.

Sector Musing update — Services · June 30, 2026

India Services Update: Revenue Was Fine, PAT Quality Was Not

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +10.2% YoY versus +13.5% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +7.7%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +77% across 47 companies. View: I am keeping the sector selective and stricter. The edge remains in logistics, exchanges/platforms and operating-leverage services where cash conversion is visible; headline sector PAT is not clean enough for a broad upgrade.

Sector Musing update — Diversified · June 30, 2026

India Holdcos Update: NAV Optionality Remains, But The Sample Is Thin

Q4 FY26 update to the June sector note: same-store revenue was +7.7% YoY versus +7.5% in Q3, FY26p revenue is +11.2%, and the Q4 earnings-call net favourable share was +100% across 1 company. View: I am confirming the optionality view without upgrading the sector on the Q4 print. The right evidence is still asset sales, demergers, dividend policy and cleaner capital allocation.

Sector Musing — Information Technology · June 2, 2026

India IT: The Deal Book Says FY27, The P&L Still Says Wait

Indian IT is bottoming, not turning. Same-store revenue grew only +7% in FY25 and a directional +8% in FY26p, yet Q3 FY26 same-store revenue accelerated to +10% YoY and order books are at records (TCS $9.3bn TCV, HCLTech ~$3bn bookings). The debate is whether AI is the demand engine or the deflation that keeps the software core stuck near +6-7% — and whether US BFSI budgets unlock on Fed cuts before the H-1B/tariff overhang bites.

Sector Musing — Healthcare · June 2, 2026

India Healthcare: Revenue Compounds, Profit Re-Bases — Read The Mix, Not The Headline

A margin-rich, steadily compounding macro sector where the loud-looking FY26p profit dip is a base effect off an exceptional FY25, not operational decay. The edge is in domestic formulations and the structural hospital build-out; the discipline is reading mix — specialty, biosimilars, CDMO — over a single year's PAT optics.

Sector Musing — Fast-Moving Consumer Goods · June 3, 2026

India FMCG: The GST Tailwind Is Real, The Re-rating Has To Be Earned

Same-store FY2026 revenue is tracking +13% and PAT compounding off a soft FY2025 base, but the lift is partly GST realisation and restocking. The durable test is ex-GST volume into FY2027 — and premium multiples leave little room to miss it.

Sector Musing — Consumer Discretionary · June 3, 2026

India Consumer Discretionary: A Value-Led Boom Built On A Thin-Margin Floor

GST 2.0 and a festive surge have pushed same-store revenue to +30% (FY26p) and +28% in Q3 FY2026, but the FY2025 close exposes the quality gap — EBITDA margin slipped to 10.78% and FY2025 PAT grew just +3% same-store (the directional FY2026p does rebound to +49% PAT / +17% EBITDA on ~66%-reported data). This is a value-and-pricing boom carried by premiumisation and a thin-margin EMS surge, not a broad volume recovery — selectivity, not breadth, is the call into FY2027.

Sector Musing — Industrials · June 4, 2026

India Industrials: The Order Book Is Loud, The P&L Is Selective

A record public-capex anchor and record diversified-engineering order books make Industrials the most visible growth story in the market — but the same-store panel shows the engine is almost entirely Capital Goods, while Construction has quietly broken on the FY26 annual line. Buying the macro means underwriting the dispersion.

Sector Musing — Energy · June 4, 2026

India Energy: A Refining-Cycle Bounce Off A Low Base, Not A Re-Rating

FY2025 was a reset year for the Energy panel — same-store EBITDA -17%, PAT -25%, margin down 2.5pp to 11.24%. The FY2026 rebound and the Q3 FY2026 PAT +30% recovery are refining-cracks-led and cyclical, not a structural margin re-rating. The edge sits with integrated refiners; the drag sits with policy-squeezed city-gas and a normalising coal panel.

Sector Musing — Utilities · June 5, 2026

India Utilities: The Demand Beta Is Gone, The Asset Beta Has Arrived

A demand air-pocket dragged same-store revenue growth to a crawl, yet margins held near a record. The Indian power sector is quietly re-pricing from a volume story into a capacity-and-grid build-out story — and that changes which business models compound.

Sector Musing — Telecommunication · June 5, 2026

India Telecom: The Price War Is Over — Now Comes The Hard Part Of Charging For It

A consolidated three-player market is holding a best-in-market 42.7% same-store EBITDA margin and compounding revenue in low-double-digits — but the quarterly print is decelerating into a tariff-hike that has not yet landed. We are constructive on the integrated operators where ARPU and margin compound together, and selective-to-cautious on the lumpy equipment and normalising tower sub-segments.

Sector Musing — Commodities · June 6, 2026

India Commodities: One Aggregate, Two Sectors

The same-store Commodities aggregate looks strong — FY2025 revenue +4%, PAT +28%, EBITDA margin 15.32% — but the line hides a widening split: non-ferrous metals and capex-geared cement are the genuine FY2027 engines, while paper and textiles deteriorate on duty-free FTA imports and a costly cotton regime. This is a constructive but unusually selective sector.

Sector Musing — Services · June 6, 2026

India Services: Revenue Is Real, The Profit Air-Pocket Is Mechanical

A same-store read of India's logistics, transport-infrastructure and commercial-services panel for FY2026, where resilient top-line meets a Labour-Code-driven profit reset that is largely an accounting one-off, not a structural earnings collapse. The edge sits with capex-geared infrastructure and compliant organised staffing; the weak leg is diesel-capped road logistics.

Sector Musing — Diversified & Holdcos · June 6, 2026

India Diversified: The Earnings Tide Goes Out, The Re-rating Door Opens

FY2025 was a margin-led blowout that won't repeat; FY2026 is normalization. For India's conglomerates and holdcos, the differentiated return driver is no longer the earnings cycle — it is value-unlock: the Jio IPO, Vedanta's five-way split, and a structurally deep NAV discount that 2026 finally gives the market a reason to bridge.

Sector strategy · May 7, 2026

India Financials: Where The Edge Is Moving

A head-analyst read of the Indian financial sector: who has structural edge, who is likely to struggle, and what would change the view.

Post-close · July 24, 2026

Consolidation Over Conviction: The Market’s M&A Pivot

As mid-cap momentum stalls in financial services, investors are rotating into specific corporate restructuring stories and 'Make in India' plays.

Selective on M&A-driven industrials; cautious on overextended financial services.